Trump says he’ll double tariffs on Mexico. Double what?

Trump says he’ll double tariffs on Mexico. Double what?

I read Trump’s Truth Social post Thursday, looking for the part where he said which tariffs he’d double. “IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED” was easy to find. A list of products or a start date would’ve told us a lot more.

The demand itself was clear. Trump wants Mexico to stop migrant caravans heading north. If Mexico doesn’t, he says he’ll double the tariffs.

The number I’d keep in mind is 80%.

That’s roughly how much of what Mexico sells to the United States already enters duty-free, according to Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez, Mexico’s deputy economy minister for foreign trade. He said Wednesday that Mexico’s immediate goal in its talks with Washington was to lower the existing tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum. Trump’s post left both questions open. Which existing duties would go up? And would duty-free goods stay that way?

In February 2025, Trump paused a 25% tariff for a month after Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to send 10,000 National Guard troops to the northern border. Mexico sent the troops under Operación Frontera Norte. The duties went into effect in March, and goods that qualified under the North American trade pact got an exemption days later. The U.S. Supreme Court threw out those emergency tariffs this February.

Back in Chiapas, two groups are to watch. Sheinbaum said Thursday that fewer than 100 people remained in a caravan in Arriaga that had started with as many as 600. She said no caravan had reached the U.S. border since Trump returned to office in January 2025, and she ruled out using force to break up the groups.

The other caravan left Tapachula on Tuesday. A Chiapas state government source put the group at about 1,500 people, many traveling with their families. Their first goal is Mexico City, more than 600 miles from where they started. They’re heading there to ask the Mexican government for help continuing north.